{
 "desenlace": "des",
 "pre_registro_md5": "3da2be07b085b96c3f80dd0a826748bd",
 "eleccion": {
  "auc_recal_H": 0.6818541446567163,
  "auc_recal_G": 0.7045626869164064,
  "elegido": "G"
 },
 "calibrador": {
  "tipo": "isotonica",
  "positivos_recal": 14999
 },
 "avisados": {
  "n": 0,
  "nota": "ningún anuncio avisado todavía: con y sin avisados es lo mismo"
 },
 "prueba": {
  "n": 35661,
  "positivos": 4580,
  "tasa": 0.1284316199770057,
  "brier": 0.10456938589813304,
  "brier_skill": 0.06584801756272785,
  "log_loss": 0.3563602669218297,
  "ap": 0.26977270884402554,
  "cal_global_puntos": -0.683498735173256,
  "o_e": 1.056210334152888,
  "pendiente": 0.8861110509665049,
  "intercepto_cal": -0.1392460282020166,
  "deciles": [
   {
    "n": 3941,
    "predicha": 0.03125274569552632,
    "observada": 0.0474498858157828,
    "E": 123.16707078606925,
    "O": 187.0,
    "V": 118.90807382621799,
    "dif_puntos": -1.6197140120256477
   },
   {
    "n": 6345,
    "predicha": 0.056774135280696955,
    "observada": 0.06603624901497242,
    "E": 360.2318883560222,
    "O": 419.0,
    "V": 339.54658423293716,
    "dif_puntos": -0.9262113734275462
   },
   {
    "n": 1319,
    "predicha": 0.07056124531893213,
    "observada": 0.0758150113722517,
    "E": 93.07028257567147,
    "O": 100.0,
    "V": 86.50312168889295,
    "dif_puntos": -0.5253766053319577
   },
   {
    "n": 3277,
    "predicha": 0.07976976033185976,
    "observada": 0.0823924321025328,
    "E": 261.40550460750444,
    "O": 270.0,
    "V": 240.5350318460964,
    "dif_puntos": -0.2622671770673046
   },
   {
    "n": 3633,
    "predicha": 0.09019271307420346,
    "observada": 0.09991742361684558,
    "E": 327.67012659858113,
    "O": 363.0,
    "V": 298.11583865236116,
    "dif_puntos": -0.9724710542642123
   },
   {
    "n": 3532,
    "predicha": 0.10475411168451164,
    "observada": 0.12004530011325028,
    "E": 369.9915224696951,
    "O": 424.0,
    "V": 331.2008735818529,
    "dif_puntos": -1.529118842873864
   },
   {
    "n": 3822,
    "predicha": 0.1312858826218077,
    "observada": 0.13788592360020932,
    "E": 501.7746433805491,
    "O": 527.0,
    "V": 435.72609041127,
    "dif_puntos": -0.6600040978401611
   },
   {
    "n": 3230,
    "predicha": 0.15738819983303415,
    "observada": 0.15727554179566564,
    "E": 508.36388546070026,
    "O": 508.0,
    "V": 428.32663457200994,
    "dif_puntos": 0.011265803736851265
   },
   {
    "n": 3043,
    "predicha": 0.19858379558703368,
    "observada": 0.20144594150509365,
    "E": 604.2904899713435,
    "O": 613.0,
    "V": 483.4676893003679,
    "dif_puntos": -0.2862145918059972
   },
   {
    "n": 3519,
    "predicha": 0.337110571708931,
    "observada": 0.3321966467746519,
    "E": 1186.2921018437282,
    "O": 1169.0,
    "V": 742.9027341224278,
    "dif_puntos": 0.49139249342791125
   }
  ],
  "auc": {
   "p": 0.6861008895056431,
   "p_raw": 0.6866270994411138,
   "b1": 0.6322179376636536
  },
  "auc_ic": {
   "p": [
    0.6725490193166618,
    0.6989932515340733
   ],
   "p_raw": [
    0.6729868751708076,
    0.699523244396344
   ],
   "b1": [
    0.6177174246502848,
    0.6451009248224966
   ]
  },
  "b2_cobertura": {
   "con_b2": 35661,
   "sin_b2": 0
  },
  "diferencias": {
   "p-b1": {
    "delta": 0.053882951841989435,
    "ic": [
     0.041309281318723204,
     0.06796313108191986
    ]
   },
   "p-b2": {
    "auc_p": 0.6861008895056431,
    "auc_b2": 0.6690020714996131,
    "delta": 0.01709881800602997,
    "ic": [
     0.0099366933884076,
     0.024558996352570566
    ],
    "brier_p": 0.10456938589813304,
    "brier_b2": 0.10647449660270818
   }
  }
 },
 "recal": {
  "n": 118513,
  "positivos": 14999,
  "tasa": 0.12655995544792553,
  "brier": 0.10113193840658902,
  "brier_skill": 0.08513098490079796,
  "log_loss": 0.3449109050534974,
  "ap": 0.2949005703239459,
  "cal_global_puntos": 9.70357655338816e-08,
  "o_e": 0.9999999923328226,
  "pendiente": 1.0000003268553734,
  "intercepto_cal": 5.665528603036627e-07,
  "deciles": [
   {
    "n": 13305,
    "predicha": 0.033145445246148035,
    "observada": 0.03314543404735062,
    "E": 441.00014899999957,
    "O": 441.0,
    "V": 424.8166342865917,
    "dif_puntos": 1.1198797417177886e-06
   },
   {
    "n": 16983,
    "predicha": 0.05817582288170519,
    "observada": 0.05817582288170523,
    "E": 987.9999999999992,
    "O": 988.0,
    "V": 930.1324465792698,
    "dif_puntos": -4.163336342344337e-15
   },
   {
    "n": 5268,
    "predicha": 0.07156416097190581,
    "observada": 0.07156416097190585,
    "E": 376.99999999999983,
    "O": 377.0,
    "V": 349.99932829758416,
    "dif_puntos": -4.163336342344337e-15
   },
   {
    "n": 11960,
    "predicha": 0.08210702341137119,
    "observada": 0.08210702341137124,
    "E": 981.9999999999994,
    "O": 982.0,
    "V": 901.1814364561885,
    "dif_puntos": -5.551115123125783e-15
   },
   {
    "n": 12135,
    "predicha": 0.09163576431808812,
    "observada": 0.09163576431808818,
    "E": 1111.9999999999993,
    "O": 1112.0,
    "V": 1009.9972350185786,
    "dif_puntos": -5.551115123125783e-15
   },
   {
    "n": 12861,
    "predicha": 0.10901174092216778,
    "observada": 0.1090117409221678,
    "E": 1401.9999999999998,
    "O": 1402.0,
    "V": 1248.6802513086195,
    "dif_puntos": -1.3877787807814457e-15
   },
   {
    "n": 11118,
    "predicha": 0.13419679798524914,
    "observada": 0.13419679798524914,
    "E": 1492.0,
    "O": 1492.0,
    "V": 1291.5616565398127,
    "dif_puntos": 0.0
   },
   {
    "n": 11761,
    "predicha": 0.157214522574611,
    "observada": 0.157214522574611,
    "E": 1848.9999999999998,
    "O": 1849.0,
    "V": 1558.1950762972133,
    "dif_puntos": 0.0
   },
   {
    "n": 12095,
    "predicha": 0.20132286068623395,
    "observada": 0.20132286068623398,
    "E": 2434.9999999999995,
    "O": 2435.0,
    "V": 1940.1197912295115,
    "dif_puntos": -2.7755575615628914e-15
   },
   {
    "n": 11027,
    "predicha": 0.3555817507935068,
    "observada": 0.35558175387684776,
    "E": 3920.9999659999994,
    "O": 3921.0,
    "V": 2330.7657433663485,
    "dif_puntos": -3.083340971432591e-07
   }
  ],
  "auc": {
   "p": 0.7055096535259482,
   "b1": 0.6225281713141059
  },
  "auc_ic": {
   "p": [
    0.6969220039358572,
    0.7147128659231292
   ],
   "b1": [
    0.6129113256315424,
    0.6320914950960882
   ]
  }
 },
 "intervalos": {
  "S": 200,
  "lambda": 3.5,
  "cobertura_recal": 0.9002457002457003,
  "celdas_recal": 2035,
  "cobertura_test": 0.8831168831168831,
  "celdas_test": 385,
  "rejilla": {
   "0.25": 0.8486486486486486,
   "0.5": 0.8506142506142507,
   "0.75": 0.8540540540540541,
   "1.0": 0.857002457002457,
   "1.25": 0.8594594594594595,
   "1.5": 0.8633906633906634,
   "1.75": 0.8683046683046683,
   "2.0": 0.8722358722358723,
   "2.25": 0.8761670761670761,
   "2.5": 0.8805896805896806,
   "2.75": 0.8855036855036855,
   "3.0": 0.888943488943489,
   "3.25": 0.8933660933660934,
   "3.5": 0.9002457002457003
  }
 },
 "deriva": {
  "alarmas_psi_ge_025": [
   "peso_precio",
   "peso_jv",
   "eb_ou_mkt",
   "eb_ou_terr",
   "eb_ou_toc",
   "eb_des_mkt",
   "eb_des_terr",
   "eb_des_toc",
   "eb_mod_org",
   "eb_mod_orgl",
   "eb_mod_orgcpv",
   "eb_mod_mkt",
   "eb_mod_terr",
   "eb_mod_toc",
   "mes_pub"
  ],
  "psi_p_bruta": 0.013881668087695538,
  "calibracion_por_mes": [
   {
    "mes": "2026-01",
    "n": 6161,
    "observada": 0.12806362603473462,
    "predicha": 0.11892102628256819
   },
   {
    "mes": "2026-02",
    "n": 8534,
    "observada": 0.1161237403327865,
    "predicha": 0.12155038385011545
   },
   {
    "mes": "2026-03",
    "n": 10531,
    "observada": 0.13711898205298642,
    "predicha": 0.12482421332067817
   },
   {
    "mes": "2026-04",
    "n": 10435,
    "observada": 0.12994729276473407,
    "predicha": 0.11995690530579935
   }
  ]
 },
 "aceptacion": {
  "1_auc": true,
  "2_b1": true,
  "3_b2": true,
  "4_calibracion": true,
  "5_cobertura": true,
  "detalle_calibracion": {
   "max_dif_deciles_1_9": 1.6197140120256477,
   "dif_decil_10": 0.49139249342791125,
   "global": -0.683498735173256,
   "pendiente": 0.8861110509665049
  },
  "pendientes_fuera_de_este_script": [
   "6_ex_ante (test dinámico)",
   "7_segunda_implementacion",
   "8_cotejo"
  ],
  "veredicto_provisional": "PASA a falta de 6-8"
 }
}